TurtleQuant — Polymarket Performance
Prices Polymarket crypto markets ("Will BTC be above $X by date?") as digital and barrier options — Black-Scholes with Deribit implied volatility — and buys when the model probability clears the executable ask by a margin. Sized with fractional Kelly under per-market and total exposure caps.
Shadow TradingArchived
Run 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-28 17:47 UTC · Simulated fills against live Polymarket order books · 110 closed trades · through 2026-09-28 · Frozen snapshot, last built 2026-10-01 22:07 UTC
Total P&L
+$112.61
Return
+11.3%
on $1,000 start
NAV
$1,112.61
realized
Win Rate
43%
47W · 63L
Profit Factor
1.21
Sharpe
0.88
annualized, daily
Max Drawdown
19.0%
$260.26
Equity Curve
Drawdown from Peak NAV
Measured on realized NAV (starting capital plus closed-trade P&L); open positions are not marked into this curve.
Return Distribution
Return per trade as a percentage of the dollars put into the position, net of fees.
Trade Metrics
Closed Trades
110
over 198 days
Expectancy
+$1.02
per trade
Avg Win
+$13.77
Avg Loss
-$8.48
Payoff Ratio
1.62
avg win / avg loss
Best Trade
+$103.54
Worst Trade
-$42.49
Sortino
1.76
annualized, daily
Avg Hold
46.1h
Win Streak
6
longest
Loss Streak
8
longest
Avg Entry Edge
+6.4%
model − price
Volume
$5,329
entry notional
By Exit Reason
edge decayed
55 trades
+$52.26 · 45% win
edge reversed
43 trades
+$32.37 · 40% win
time cleanup
7 trades
+$26.38 · 29% win
expired
3 trades
+$45.24 · 100% win
resolved
2 trades
-$43.63 · 0% win
By Asset
ETH
100 trades
+$174.26 · 45% win
BTC
10 trades
-$61.65 · 20% win
Open When Archived
Open Positions
8
Exposure
$183.07
16.5% of NAV
Unrealized P&L
-$68.71
mark to bid
| Opened (UTC) | Asset | Market | Type | Side | Strike | Expiry | Edge | Entry | Mark | Size | Status | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 03:11 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,750 | 2027-01-01 | +15.6% | 36.0¢ | 7.0¢ | $25.29 | open | -$20.37 |
| 2026-09-17 21:41 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $2,250 | 2027-01-01 | +20.3% | 58.2¢ | 29.0¢ | $73.75 | open | -$37.01 |
| 2026-09-24 19:57 | BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $70,000 | 2027-01-01 | +5.3% | 34.0¢ | 33.0¢ | $23.87 | open | -$0.70 |
| 2026-09-25 16:32 | BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $65,000 | 2027-01-01 | +6.2% | 20.0¢ | 20.0¢ | $19.36 | open | $0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 19:54 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | +5.5% | 6.7¢ | 6.6¢ | $16.36 | open | -$0.24 |
| 2026-09-25 20:06 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September? | barrier down | YES | $2,500 | 2026-10-01 | +5.7% | 11.0¢ | 4.6¢ | $16.92 | open | -$9.84 |
| 2026-09-26 08:41 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2027-01-01 | +19.3% | 15.0¢ | 15.0¢ | $4.01 | open | $0.00 |
| 2026-09-26 15:36 | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | barrier | YES | $2,800 | 2026-10-01 | +6.7% | 32.0¢ | 27.0¢ | $3.52 | open | -$0.55 |
Trade Log
| # | Opened (UTC) | Closed (UTC) | Hold | Asset | Market | Type | Side | Strike | Expiry | Model P | Edge | Entry | Exit | Size | Exit Reason | Return | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 2026-09-25 20:48 | 2026-09-28 04:17 | 2.3d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 21-27? | barrier down | YES | $2,600 | 2026-09-28 | 13.6% | +5.1% | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $16.50 | resolved | -106.4% | -$17.56 |
| 109 | 2026-09-25 11:47 | 2026-09-28 04:14 | 2.7d | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 21-27? | barrier | YES | $2,800 | 2026-09-28 | 39.9% | +5.3% | 33.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $24.90 | resolved | -104.7% | -$26.06 |
| 108 | 2026-09-26 08:33 | 2026-09-26 20:09 | 11.6h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 26? | barrier | YES | $2,750 | 2026-09-27 | 11.9% | +5.5% | 6.0¢ | 0.2¢ | $8.97 | edge decayed | -103.6% | -$9.30 |
| 107 | 2026-09-26 05:18 | 2026-09-26 19:14 | 13.9h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 26? | barrier | YES | $85,000 | 2026-09-27 | 19.0% | +7.3% | 11.0¢ | 3.2¢ | $4.46 | edge decayed | -79.1% | -$3.53 |
| 106 | 2026-09-26 07:43 | 2026-09-26 15:32 | 7.8h | BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? | barrier down | YES | $83,000 | 2026-09-27 | 13.7% | +5.2% | 8.0¢ | 5.0¢ | $2.67 | edge decayed | -48.1% | -$1.28 |
| 105 | 2026-09-25 16:41 | 2026-09-26 12:04 | 19.4h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 21-27? | barrier | YES | $86,000 | 2026-09-28 | 18.1% | +5.3% | 12.0¢ | 5.6¢ | $18.22 | edge decayed | -62.4% | -$11.38 |
| 104 | 2026-09-25 18:39 | 2026-09-26 10:02 | 15.4h | BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27? | barrier down | YES | $82,000 | 2026-09-28 | 14.7% | +5.1% | 9.0¢ | 6.0¢ | $16.84 | edge decayed | -44.1% | -$7.42 |
| 103 | 2026-09-25 19:37 | 2026-09-25 20:02 | 0.4h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | barrier | YES | $85,000 | 2026-10-01 | 73.7% | +5.2% | 67.0¢ | 71.0¢ | $49.17 | edge decayed | +1.5% | +$0.74 |
| 102 | 2026-09-25 10:29 | 2026-09-25 12:16 | 1.8h | BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 25? | european | YES | $84,000 | 2026-09-25 | 89.1% | +5.1% | 83.0¢ | 59.0¢ | $97.86 | edge decayed | -32.1% | -$31.46 |
| 101 | 2026-09-24 20:28 | 2026-09-25 06:13 | 9.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27? | barrier | YES | $2,900 | 2026-09-28 | 9.8% | +5.8% | 3.9¢ | 3.9¢ | $18.68 | edge decayed | -7.8% | -$1.46 |
| 100 | 2026-09-25 05:14 | 2026-09-25 06:10 | 0.9h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 21-27? | barrier | YES | $86,000 | 2026-09-28 | 38.6% | +5.1% | 32.0¢ | 33.0¢ | $23.60 | edge decayed | -6.5% | -$1.53 |
| 99 | 2026-09-25 02:11 | 2026-09-25 02:28 | 0.3h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 21-27? | barrier | YES | $86,000 | 2026-09-28 | 59.8% | +7.7% | 52.0¢ | 51.3¢ | $49.24 | edge decayed | -6.6% | -$3.23 |
| 98 | 2026-09-24 20:15 | 2026-09-25 01:04 | 4.8h | BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | barrier down | YES | $80,000 | 2026-10-01 | 28.2% | +5.1% | 23.0¢ | 21.9¢ | $20.30 | edge decayed | -12.8% | -$2.59 |
| 97 | 2026-09-25 00:09 | 2026-09-25 00:14 | 0.1h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | barrier | YES | $85,000 | 2026-10-01 | 93.1% | +5.1% | 88.0¢ | 89.1¢ | $123.32 | edge decayed | 0.0% | +$0.03 |
| 96 | 2026-08-23 14:46 | 2026-08-28 13:54 | 5.0d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 24.8% | +5.0% | 10.0¢ | 14.3¢ | $17.44 | edge decayed | +22.0% | +$3.84 |
| 95 | 2026-07-14 10:44 | 2026-08-05 17:57 | 22.3d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 69.7% | +6.8% | 62.9¢ | 49.1¢ | $60.78 | edge decayed | -28.5% | -$17.31 |
| 94 | 2026-07-14 19:44 | 2026-07-14 23:01 | 3.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19? | barrier | YES | $2,000 | 2026-07-20 | 28.1% | +5.1% | 25.1¢ | 23.2¢ | $21.90 | edge decayed | -8.3% | -$1.83 |
| 93 | 2026-07-14 14:54 | 2026-07-14 15:24 | 0.5h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14? | barrier | YES | $1,900 | 2026-07-15 | 52.3% | +5.2% | 50.1¢ | 43.2¢ | $63.69 | edge decayed | -14.3% | -$9.13 |
| 92 | 2026-07-12 01:45 | 2026-07-12 06:04 | 4.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 6-12? | barrier | YES | $1,900 | 2026-07-13 | 10.0% | +6.3% | 3.9¢ | 1.0¢ | $21.06 | edge decayed | -74.3% | -$15.65 |
| 91 | 2026-07-08 11:47 | 2026-07-08 11:55 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 8? | european | YES | $1,700 | 2026-07-08 | 98.1% | +5.0% | 93.1¢ | 93.4¢ | $127.36 | time cleanup | -0.3% | -$0.35 |
| 90 | 2026-07-07 15:49 | 2026-07-08 01:37 | 9.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 6-12? | barrier | YES | $2,000 | 2026-07-13 | 9.4% | +6.0% | 3.9¢ | 1.1¢ | $20.19 | edge decayed | -72.5% | -$14.64 |
| 89 | 2026-07-04 15:54 | 2026-07-05 02:10 | 10.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 29-July 5? | barrier | YES | $1,900 | 2026-07-06 | 13.6% | +9.1% | 4.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $34.51 | edge decayed | -90.1% | -$31.11 |
| 88 | 2026-07-04 04:33 | 2026-07-04 08:05 | 3.5h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 4? | european | YES | $1,800 | 2026-07-04 | 9.3% | +5.7% | 4.8¢ | 2.9¢ | $19.75 | edge decayed | -39.5% | -$7.81 |
| 87 | 2026-07-03 20:27 | 2026-07-03 21:32 | 1.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 4? | european | YES | $1,800 | 2026-07-04 | 9.7% | +5.6% | 5.1¢ | 9.8¢ | $19.35 | edge decayed | +89.4% | +$17.30 |
| 86 | 2026-07-03 08:46 | 2026-07-03 10:00 | 1.2h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 3? | european | YES | $1,700 | 2026-07-03 | 94.1% | +5.1% | 89.4¢ | 89.3¢ | $131.09 | time cleanup | -0.8% | -$0.99 |
| 85 | 2026-06-30 17:18 | 2026-07-01 01:13 | 7.9h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 30? | barrier down | YES | $1,550 | 2026-07-01 | 51.6% | +9.6% | 42.0¢ | 76.0¢ | $55.79 | time cleanup | +80.1% | +$44.69 |
| 84 | 2026-06-26 17:06 | 2026-06-30 19:16 | 4.1d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 50.3% | +5.3% | 45.0¢ | 3.6¢ | $35.06 | edge decayed | -92.3% | -$32.37 |
| 83 | 2026-06-25 13:12 | 2026-06-29 17:13 | 4.2d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,400 | 2026-07-01 | 14.5% | +6.6% | 7.9¢ | 1.3¢ | $23.54 | edge decayed | -84.0% | -$19.77 |
| 82 | 2026-06-28 08:41 | 2026-06-28 22:00 | 13.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-06-29 | 10.8% | +6.2% | 4.7¢ | 5.1¢ | $21.72 | time cleanup | +8.0% | +$1.74 |
| 81 | 2026-06-26 12:41 | 2026-06-27 03:30 | 14.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,300 | 2026-07-01 | 18.7% | +12.4% | 7.6¢ | 1.3¢ | $44.01 | edge decayed | -83.7% | -$36.84 |
| 80 | 2026-06-26 08:36 | 2026-06-26 12:44 | 4.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 57.2% | +5.2% | 52.3¢ | 78.0¢ | $51.06 | edge decayed | +48.5% | +$24.77 |
| 79 | 2026-06-26 10:45 | 2026-06-26 10:47 | 0.0h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? | european | YES | $1,500 | 2026-06-26 | 93.1% | +5.1% | 88.3¢ | 86.5¢ | $133.22 | time cleanup | -2.7% | -$3.54 |
| 78 | 2026-06-25 14:49 | 2026-06-26 08:06 | 17.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,300 | 2026-07-01 | 14.3% | +8.5% | 6.2¢ | 3.8¢ | $30.16 | edge decayed | -39.4% | -$11.88 |
| 77 | 2026-06-25 14:32 | 2026-06-26 03:10 | 12.6h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-06-29 | 54.1% | +5.9% | 48.2¢ | 72.0¢ | $43.97 | edge decayed | +48.6% | +$21.38 |
| 76 | 2026-06-24 20:32 | 2026-06-25 13:53 | 17.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 41.7% | +5.7% | 36.0¢ | 62.0¢ | $31.10 | edge decayed | +71.4% | +$22.21 |
| 75 | 2026-06-22 02:45 | 2026-06-25 08:03 | 3.2d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,400 | 2026-07-01 | 12.5% | +8.0% | 4.5¢ | 4.8¢ | $26.85 | edge decayed | +5.7% | +$1.53 |
| 74 | 2026-06-24 19:55 | 2026-06-24 20:09 | 0.2h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? | barrier down | YES | $1,550 | 2026-06-25 | 37.0% | +8.4% | 28.6¢ | 10.9¢ | $41.78 | edge decayed | -62.3% | -$26.03 |
| 73 | 2026-06-09 20:41 | 2026-06-24 17:23 | 14.9d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 55.2% | +5.2% | 50.0¢ | 59.0¢ | $37.84 | edge decayed | +17.3% | +$6.56 |
| 72 | 2026-06-24 16:20 | 2026-06-24 16:51 | 0.5h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24? | barrier down | YES | $1,600 | 2026-06-25 | 48.5% | +5.1% | 44.5¢ | 99.9¢ | $30.08 | edge decayed | +123.7% | +$37.22 |
| 71 | 2026-06-19 05:06 | 2026-06-19 05:13 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? | european | YES | $1,700 | 2026-06-19 | 42.4% | +5.4% | 37.0¢ | 43.0¢ | $29.81 | edge decayed | +15.6% | +$4.64 |
| 70 | 2026-06-05 18:41 | 2026-06-14 21:15 | 9.1d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,400 | 2026-07-01 | 58.7% | +8.8% | 50.8¢ | 16.5¢ | $62.60 | edge decayed | -67.9% | -$42.49 |
| 69 | 2026-06-02 19:29 | 2026-06-11 10:31 | 8.6d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,300 | 2026-07-01 | 10.5% | +5.6% | 5.0¢ | 12.8¢ | $17.30 | edge decayed | +156.4% | +$27.06 |
| 68 | 2026-06-09 20:19 | 2026-06-11 08:06 | 35.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,200 | 2026-07-01 | 17.1% | +5.3% | 12.1¢ | 10.2¢ | $21.27 | edge reversed | -16.2% | -$3.45 |
| 67 | 2026-06-05 20:33 | 2026-06-11 08:06 | 5.5d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,100 | 2026-07-01 | 20.2% | +8.8% | 11.5¢ | 4.7¢ | $33.91 | edge reversed | -59.5% | -$20.19 |
| 66 | 2026-06-04 03:39 | 2026-06-11 08:06 | 7.2d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,000 | 2026-07-01 | 9.3% | +5.8% | 3.5¢ | 1.9¢ | $18.25 | edge reversed | -46.2% | -$8.43 |
| 65 | 2026-06-10 11:50 | 2026-06-10 11:57 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? | european | YES | $1,600 | 2026-06-10 | 78.2% | +5.3% | 72.9¢ | 68.4¢ | $91.37 | time cleanup | -6.7% | -$6.16 |
| 64 | 2026-06-05 06:53 | 2026-06-09 17:15 | 4.4d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,200 | 2026-07-01 | 21.0% | +12.1% | 8.9¢ | 11.4¢ | $40.65 | edge decayed | +27.7% | +$11.27 |
| 63 | 2026-06-07 03:33 | 2026-06-07 15:30 | 12.0h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-06-08 | 24.7% | +5.1% | 19.7¢ | 3.8¢ | $42.65 | edge decayed | -80.8% | -$34.45 |
| 62 | 2026-06-06 23:32 | 2026-06-07 06:29 | 7.0h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? | barrier down | YES | $1,400 | 2026-06-08 | 12.0% | +7.8% | 6.8¢ | 1.0¢ | $28.06 | edge decayed | -85.6% | -$24.02 |
| 61 | 2026-06-06 06:52 | 2026-06-06 23:41 | 16.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 95.0% | +5.0% | 93.1¢ | 93.6¢ | $137.74 | edge decayed | -0.0% | -$0.00 |
| 60 | 2026-06-05 17:19 | 2026-06-05 18:40 | 1.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 77.2% | +6.2% | 73.9¢ | 78.2¢ | $102.45 | edge decayed | +5.2% | +$5.38 |
| 59 | 2026-06-05 15:24 | 2026-06-05 16:07 | 0.7h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 92.0% | +6.0% | 86.0¢ | 90.1¢ | $126.32 | edge decayed | +4.2% | +$5.25 |
| 58 | 2026-06-03 03:57 | 2026-06-05 15:43 | 2.5d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,400 | 2026-07-01 | 22.5% | +11.0% | 12.3¢ | 47.6¢ | $36.40 | edge decayed | +284.5% | +$103.54 |
| 57 | 2026-06-05 03:13 | 2026-06-05 15:18 | 12.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2026-07-01 | 45.9% | +11.9% | 37.2¢ | 72.4¢ | $56.44 | edge decayed | +93.8% | +$52.92 |
| 56 | 2026-06-04 14:30 | 2026-06-04 22:42 | 8.2h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,700 | 2026-07-01 | 79.2% | +5.2% | 74.9¢ | 80.3¢ | $64.86 | edge decayed | +6.5% | +$4.24 |
| 55 | 2026-06-04 04:53 | 2026-06-04 10:52 | 6.0h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? | barrier down | YES | $1,700 | 2026-07-01 | 73.8% | +5.8% | 69.9¢ | 89.1¢ | $58.39 | edge decayed | +26.8% | +$15.63 |
| 54 | 2026-06-04 10:33 | 2026-06-04 10:42 | 0.2h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? | european | YES | $1,700 | 2026-06-04 | 91.7% | +5.2% | 88.7¢ | 82.6¢ | $119.94 | time cleanup | -7.5% | -$9.01 |
| 53 | 2026-06-03 06:38 | 2026-06-03 16:27 | 9.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-06-08 | 54.0% | +7.0% | 47.0¢ | 88.0¢ | $40.98 | edge decayed | +86.4% | +$35.40 |
| 52 | 2026-05-28 02:35 | 2026-05-29 16:42 | 38.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-06-01 | 10.1% | +5.1% | 5.0¢ | 1.1¢ | $15.05 | edge decayed | -78.4% | -$11.79 |
| 51 | 2026-05-07 23:32 | 2026-05-28 16:11 | 20.7d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 53.8% | +12.3% | 41.5¢ | 57.5¢ | $110.35 | edge decayed | +37.9% | +$41.88 |
| 50 | 2026-05-28 00:51 | 2026-05-28 03:18 | 2.4h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2026-06-01 | 79.2% | +6.2% | 75.0¢ | 99.0¢ | $67.37 | edge decayed | +31.3% | +$21.11 |
| 49 | 2026-05-23 13:36 | 2026-05-27 21:55 | 4.3d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2026-06-01 | 80.4% | +5.4% | 75.6¢ | 80.7¢ | $64.37 | edge decayed | +6.0% | +$3.87 |
| 48 | 2026-05-15 14:10 | 2026-05-26 02:17 | 10.5d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-06-01 | 15.0% | +8.6% | 6.3¢ | 3.7¢ | $25.49 | edge decayed | -42.2% | -$10.76 |
| 47 | 2026-05-18 01:54 | 2026-05-23 07:52 | 5.2d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2026-06-01 | 63.2% | +5.2% | 58.0¢ | 86.0¢ | $37.31 | edge decayed | +47.5% | +$17.73 |
| 46 | 2026-05-19 09:36 | 2026-05-19 09:48 | 0.2h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? | european | YES | $2,100 | 2026-05-19 | 83.5% | +8.2% | 75.3¢ | 68.5¢ | $81.98 | edge decayed | -9.6% | -$7.89 |
| 45 | 2026-05-19 04:12 | 2026-05-19 06:17 | 2.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? | european | YES | $2,200 | 2026-05-19 | 9.7% | +5.2% | 4.9¢ | 3.2¢ | $15.26 | edge decayed | -34.6% | -$5.28 |
| 44 | 2026-05-16 07:40 | 2026-05-16 07:46 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16? | european | YES | $2,200 | 2026-05-16 | 44.8% | +6.8% | 38.0¢ | 48.0¢ | $30.44 | edge reversed | +25.6% | +$7.80 |
| 43 | 2026-05-13 04:49 | 2026-05-13 08:40 | 3.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? | barrier down | YES | $2,200 | 2026-06-01 | 68.6% | +5.1% | 63.5¢ | 65.5¢ | $38.57 | edge decayed | +2.5% | +$0.98 |
| 42 | 2026-05-12 15:25 | 2026-05-12 17:20 | 1.9h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? | barrier down | YES | $2,200 | 2026-06-01 | 82.2% | +5.7% | 76.5¢ | 78.5¢ | $110.35 | edge reversed | +2.6% | +$2.88 |
| 41 | 2026-05-05 00:53 | 2026-05-06 18:12 | 41.3h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-06-01 | 48.6% | +5.1% | 43.5¢ | 43.5¢ | $48.79 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.29 |
| 40 | 2026-05-06 11:23 | 2026-05-06 11:25 | 0.0h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? | european | YES | $2,400 | 2026-05-06 | 75.7% | +8.2% | 67.5¢ | 77.0¢ | $108.82 | edge reversed | +14.1% | +$15.32 |
| 39 | 2026-05-06 09:11 | 2026-05-06 09:24 | 0.2h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-06-01 | 98.9% | +5.2% | 93.8¢ | 97.1¢ | $108.43 | edge reversed | +3.6% | +$3.87 |
| 38 | 2026-05-06 08:55 | 2026-05-06 09:23 | 0.5h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? | european | YES | $2,400 | 2026-05-06 | 42.6% | +9.1% | 33.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $74.33 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.45 |
| 37 | 2026-05-04 10:36 | 2026-05-04 20:19 | 9.7h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-06-01 | 46.6% | +5.1% | 41.5¢ | 47.5¢ | $46.19 | edge reversed | +14.5% | +$6.68 |
| 36 | 2026-05-04 10:35 | 2026-05-04 16:00 | 5.4h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-05-04 | 93.4% | +8.9% | 84.5¢ | 99.9¢ | $105.83 | expired | +18.2% | +$19.29 |
| 35 | 2026-04-29 18:38 | 2026-05-04 02:38 | 4.3d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 59.3% | +6.8% | 52.5¢ | 52.5¢ | $76.28 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.46 |
| 34 | 2026-04-27 00:56 | 2026-04-27 01:28 | 0.5h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27? | european | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-27 | 38.8% | +5.3% | 33.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $42.56 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.26 |
| 33 | 2026-04-18 08:21 | 2026-04-24 11:07 | 6.1d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2026-05-01 | 20.8% | +10.2% | 10.5¢ | 10.5¢ | $30.07 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.18 |
| 32 | 2026-04-15 23:17 | 2026-04-24 08:20 | 8.4d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-05-01 | 12.8% | +8.1% | 4.8¢ | 4.8¢ | $21.99 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.13 |
| 31 | 2026-04-23 11:48 | 2026-04-23 13:53 | 2.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-23 | 83.9% | +6.4% | 77.5¢ | 77.5¢ | $75.15 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.45 |
| 30 | 2026-04-23 09:18 | 2026-04-23 09:24 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-23 | 77.5% | +7.5% | 70.0¢ | 72.0¢ | $65.64 | edge reversed | +2.9% | +$1.88 |
| 29 | 2026-04-06 01:23 | 2026-04-23 08:05 | 17.3d | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,800 | 2026-05-01 | 11.0% | +5.0% | 5.9¢ | 5.9¢ | $13.73 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.08 |
| 28 | 2026-04-22 05:31 | 2026-04-22 07:19 | 1.8h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? | european | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-22 | 50.7% | +10.2% | 40.5¢ | 40.5¢ | $45.48 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.27 |
| 27 | 2026-04-21 11:20 | 2026-04-21 11:38 | 0.3h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 21? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-21 | 75.2% | +5.7% | 69.5¢ | 78.0¢ | $49.11 | edge reversed | +12.2% | +$6.01 |
| 26 | 2026-04-18 08:47 | 2026-04-18 10:10 | 1.4h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-05-01 | 42.8% | +5.3% | 37.5¢ | 38.5¢ | $22.07 | edge reversed | +2.7% | +$0.59 |
| 25 | 2026-04-16 18:38 | 2026-04-17 13:09 | 18.5h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2026-05-01 | 28.7% | +8.0% | 20.7¢ | 20.7¢ | $26.34 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.16 |
| 24 | 2026-04-17 09:14 | 2026-04-17 09:37 | 0.4h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 17? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-17 | 94.6% | +5.1% | 89.5¢ | 93.0¢ | $104.58 | edge reversed | +3.9% | +$4.09 |
| 23 | 2026-04-17 07:07 | 2026-04-17 07:14 | 0.1h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 17? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-17 | 83.5% | +6.0% | 77.5¢ | 83.0¢ | $69.71 | edge reversed | +7.1% | +$4.95 |
| 22 | 2026-04-14 21:05 | 2026-04-16 13:55 | 40.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-05-01 | 38.5% | +5.0% | 33.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $19.74 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.12 |
| 21 | 2026-04-14 18:12 | 2026-04-14 18:48 | 0.6h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-05-01 | 42.6% | +5.1% | 37.5¢ | 37.5¢ | $21.41 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.13 |
| 20 | 2026-04-14 08:34 | 2026-04-14 14:56 | 6.4h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-05-01 | 51.9% | +5.4% | 46.5¢ | 46.5¢ | $26.14 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.16 |
| 19 | 2026-04-14 08:37 | 2026-04-14 08:43 | 0.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-05-01 | 98.6% | +5.1% | 93.5¢ | 97.0¢ | $103.70 | edge reversed | +3.7% | +$3.88 |
| 18 | 2026-04-07 23:26 | 2026-04-08 18:55 | 19.5h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? | barrier | YES | $3,000 | 2026-05-01 | 11.5% | +5.0% | 6.5¢ | 6.5¢ | $13.84 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.08 |
| 17 | 2026-04-08 11:26 | 2026-04-08 11:37 | 0.2h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 8? | european | YES | $2,200 | 2026-04-08 | 95.9% | +5.0% | 90.9¢ | 92.9¢ | $103.47 | edge reversed | +2.2% | +$2.28 |
| 16 | 2026-04-08 06:42 | 2026-04-08 08:11 | 1.5h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 8? | european | YES | $2,300 | 2026-04-08 | 18.8% | +5.5% | 13.2¢ | 14.8¢ | $16.47 | edge reversed | +11.7% | +$1.93 |
| 15 | 2026-04-06 23:04 | 2026-04-07 22:38 | 23.6h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-05-01 | 44.7% | +10.2% | 34.5¢ | 34.5¢ | $40.09 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.24 |
| 14 | 2026-04-05 05:25 | 2026-04-05 23:15 | 17.8h | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-05-01 | 52.4% | +6.9% | 45.5¢ | 45.5¢ | $32.58 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.20 |
| 13 | 2026-04-01 09:52 | 2026-04-01 10:03 | 0.2h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1? | european | YES | $2,100 | 2026-04-01 | 85.9% | +5.4% | 80.5¢ | 84.5¢ | $70.90 | edge reversed | +5.0% | +$3.52 |
| 12 | 2026-03-31 11:18 | 2026-03-31 16:00 | 4.7h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31? | european | YES | $2,000 | 2026-03-31 | 89.7% | +6.2% | 83.5¢ | 99.9¢ | $94.23 | expired | +19.6% | +$18.51 |
| 11 | 2026-03-25 06:06 | 2026-03-30 21:20 | 5.6d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? | barrier down | YES | $1,800 | 2026-04-01 | 13.8% | +10.0% | 3.9¢ | 3.9¢ | $26.25 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.16 |
| 10 | 2026-03-23 12:14 | 2026-03-26 02:31 | 2.6d | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,600 | 2026-04-01 | 10.4% | +5.2% | 5.2¢ | 5.2¢ | $13.72 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.08 |
| 9 | 2026-03-19 04:53 | 2026-03-24 08:03 | 5.1d | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? | barrier down | YES | $1,600 | 2026-04-01 | 12.5% | +7.1% | 5.3¢ | 5.3¢ | $18.89 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.11 |
| 8 | 2026-03-23 11:12 | 2026-03-23 16:00 | 4.8h | ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23? | european | YES | $2,000 | 2026-03-23 | 100.0% | +7.0% | 93.0¢ | 99.9¢ | $100.27 | expired | +7.4% | +$7.44 |
| 7 | 2026-03-23 15:00 | 2026-03-23 15:39 | 0.6h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 38.8% | +5.3% | 33.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $20.07 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.12 |
| 6 | 2026-03-23 11:33 | 2026-03-23 11:39 | 0.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 38.5% | +5.0% | 33.5¢ | 34.5¢ | $18.87 | edge reversed | +3.0% | +$0.56 |
| 5 | 2026-03-20 22:03 | 2026-03-20 23:07 | 1.1h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 38.6% | +5.1% | 33.5¢ | 36.5¢ | $19.02 | edge reversed | +9.0% | +$1.70 |
| 4 | 2026-03-19 19:16 | 2026-03-20 14:00 | 18.7h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 39.1% | +5.6% | 33.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $21.15 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.13 |
| 3 | 2026-03-19 09:10 | 2026-03-19 12:51 | 3.7h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 44.6% | +5.1% | 39.5¢ | 39.5¢ | $21.06 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.13 |
| 2 | 2026-03-19 01:37 | 2026-03-19 07:02 | 5.4h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 51.6% | +5.1% | 46.5¢ | 46.5¢ | $23.67 | edge reversed | -0.6% | -$0.14 |
| 1 | 2026-03-18 18:30 | 2026-03-18 18:53 | 0.4h | ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | barrier | YES | $2,400 | 2026-04-01 | 52.6% | +5.1% | 47.5¢ | 49.5¢ | $24.12 | edge reversed | +4.2% | +$1.02 |
Methodology
- P&L is realized and net of modeled taker fees. Entry and exit prices are the held token's prices (YES or NO, see Side) in cents.
- Sharpe and Sortino are annualized (√365) from daily returns on realized NAV. Days with no closed trades count as 0%.
- Edge is model probability minus the executable ask at entry. Open-position marks use the last observed best bid, before exit fees; resolved markets use the resolution price.
- Profit factor is gross winning P&L over gross losing P&L. Payoff ratio is average win over average loss.