TurtleQuant — Polymarket Performance
Prices Polymarket crypto markets ("Will BTC be above $X by date?") as digital and barrier options — Black-Scholes with Deribit implied volatility — and buys when the model probability clears the executable ask by a margin. Sized with fractional Kelly under per-market and total exposure caps.
Shadow Trading
Run started 2026-09-28 17:48 UTC · Simulated fills against live Polymarket order books · 1 closed trades · through 2026-10-01 · Regenerated hourly, last built 2026-10-01 22:07 UTC
Total P&L
+$3.43
Return
+0.3%
on $1,000 start
NAV
$1,003.43
realized
Win Rate
100%
1W · 0L
Profit Factor
∞
Sharpe
—
annualized, daily
Max Drawdown
0.0%
$0.00
Equity Curve
Drawdown from Peak NAV
Measured on realized NAV (starting capital plus closed-trade P&L); open positions are not marked into this curve.
Return Distribution
Return per trade as a percentage of the dollars put into the position, net of fees.
Trade Metrics
Closed Trades
1
over 1 days
Expectancy
+$3.43
per trade
Avg Win
+$3.43
Avg Loss
—
Payoff Ratio
—
avg win / avg loss
Best Trade
+$3.43
Worst Trade
+$3.43
Sortino
—
annualized, daily
Avg Hold
3.1h
Win Streak
1
longest
Loss Streak
0
longest
Avg Entry Edge
+5.8%
model − price
Volume
$21
entry notional
By Exit Reason
ev exit
1 trade
+$3.43 · 100% win
By Asset
BTC
1 trade
+$3.43 · 100% win
Open Positions
Open Positions
2
Exposure
$21.30
2.1% of NAV
Unrealized P&L
-$2.34
mark to bid
| Opened (UTC) | Asset | Market | Type | Side | Strike | Expiry | Edge | Entry | Mark | Size | Status | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 17:48 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $2,000 | 2027-01-01 | +9.2% | 17.0¢ | 15.0¢ | $20.29 | open | -$2.34 |
| 2026-09-29 11:55 | ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | barrier down | YES | $2,250 | 2027-01-01 | +16.6% | 28.0¢ | 28.0¢ | $1.01 | open | $0.00 |
Trade Log
| # | Opened (UTC) | Closed (UTC) | Hold | Asset | Market | Type | Side | Strike | Expiry | Model P | Edge | Entry | Exit | Size | Exit Reason | Return | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-10-01 14:27 | 2026-10-01 17:32 | 3.1h | BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | barrier | YES | $85,000 | 2026-11-01 | 91.9% | +5.8% | 85.3¢ | 99.9¢ | $21.32 | ev exit | +16.1% | +$3.43 |
Methodology
- P&L is realized and net of modeled taker fees. Entry and exit prices are the held token's prices (YES or NO, see Side) in cents.
- Sharpe and Sortino are annualized (√365) from daily returns on realized NAV. Days with no closed trades count as 0%.
- Edge is model probability minus the executable ask at entry. Open-position marks use the last observed best bid, before exit fees; resolved markets use the resolution price.
- Profit factor is gross winning P&L over gross losing P&L. Payoff ratio is average win over average loss.